There is no debate as to the best basketball competition form in the world – the National Basketball Association in the USA. This is where some of the best basketball players in the world play. It’s hardly a surprise that there are many fans of the NBA all around the world.
So, it goes without saying that it’s highly popular to bet on NBA. Most bookies around the world offer odds for NBA. You will learn in this article some of the most important elements of a solid betting strategy for NBA.
The great importance of stats
You can find lots of information and data about the NBA players and teams online. You can visit the official NBA website or see some other websites that gather NBA stats. And this is where you should start.
The stats that you will need to keep an eye on are the average points conceded and scored for every team. But it’s a bit more complicated than that. You should take these stats and include who’s the host of the game. You should also get the away/home stats for the teams that will play.
You will need to dedicate some time in order to locate the worst and best aspects of particular NBA teams. Your best bet is to try and predict the outcome of the clash of both the teams’ playing styles. As an example, you may consider the fact that an offensive team will lose some of its edge when the team plays against a team with a solid defense.
Being mindful of the schedule
You need to be mindful of the stats of the teams so that you can have a clearer picture. But there are a few other factors that you should take into consideration as well. An important factor is the schedule.
The NBA teams can be found across the entire United States of America. So, a particular team may have to travel through multiple time zones in order to play the scheduled game. You should never ignore this. Instead – you should always evaluate the schedule’s impact in one of the following ways:
Rested teams against drained opponents
If you wish to evaluate a particular matchup, then you need to check the last few days before the event. See what the schedule of the teams for the past few days was. See if the teams traveled a lot. See if they have won easily or if they had a tough match.
The importance of mental and physical fatigue cannot be overstated. If one of the teams that you have analyzed didn’t play any games in the past few days – then it’s logical that they would most likely play close to their best. If the opposing team had to travel several thousands of miles and had a few games in the past days – it means that the well-rested team will have a big edge.
Being careful with NBA teams that have had 4 games in 5 days
A point that relates to the previous paragraph is that you need to be mindful of teams that played 4 times in 5 days. The last 1-2 games will be typically harder for the team to play out, no matter how good the team’s squad is. You need to be very careful if you intend to bet on such a team. You should be especially careful if the team had to travel a lot and change time zones in the process.
Additional important factors of NBA betting
One of the most important things when it comes to NBA betting is the team selection. You need to learn if there are any suspensions or injuries or any other reasons as to why a certain player may miss out on a game. Even though this is common knowledge – there are still many people that aren’t mindful of this. It’s not only important to see which player won’t play – it’s also important to measure out the potential impact that the absence of the player will have on the game.
There are various teams that have many solid players that are well rested and waiting their turn on the bench. But there are various teams that can’t cope with the absence of key players. You need to analyze the teams in order to see which variant is more truthful.
You need to also realize that it’s important to check out the possible rotation. Most NBA coaches make it a habit to rest their most important players at particular points during the season. The reason for this is that these players can get exhausted during the long season. If you want an example of this, then check out Greg Popovich – he always rotates the Spurs lineup and you can never really tell which players will play out any particular game.
The importance of extra motivation
There are many heated rivalries in the NBA between different teams and players. The rivalries can be old or new. Regardless of this, there are rivalries that will get the best out of particular players. This is also an important factor to include in your analysis.
There is also an important factor that you need to consider in the games of weaker teams against stronger teams. There will be extra motivation for the weaker teams to take the win if they play against the Cleveland Cavaliers or the Golden State Warriors, for example. And the bigger the difference in strength, the more the motivation that the underdogs will have. It rarely happens that a complete underdog takes the entire match – but more often than not, the games are a lot closer than what was predicted initially. You should take advantage of this by looking for big spreads – for example, more than 10-12 points. You should then place a bet on the underdogs.
Checking out the bookmaker’s rules
This is a very important thing to do if you wish to bet on over/under points. Most of the bookies will include extra time when it comes to this calculation – but there are also some exceptions to this. You may think that this is a small factor, but in the long run, it can exert a dramatic influence. The obvious course of action would be for you to bet on overs if a bookie includes overtime and on unders if a bookie doesn’t include overtime.
Public bets are a no-go
You need to find prices with positive expected value – this is the main goal in sports betting. This would mean that you will win more than the odds typically suggest – and that you will have consistent profits. You shouldn’t bet on the public bets if you want this to happen. These are games where most of the casual players will bet on the favorite.
The effect of this is that the bookies will need to adjust the odds if everyone just bets on the favorite. So, the odds for the winner are usually very bad. There are a number of tipsters that use the strategy of betting on the underdogs in such scenarios due to the very high odds that the underdogs have if they win. This is not a simple approach – but it can sure be more lucrative than the counterpart when it comes to high-cash flow games.
Last Update: May 2019