There has been an explosion in the field of the online betting industry. This means that the gamblers are given many opportunities for where they can bet. There are many unconventional fields that you can bet on nowadays. And one of the most unconventional fields that you can bet on is politics. There are gamblers that continue to bet on various elections. Most of these elections that you can bet on are in the UK or the USA, but there are also elections in other countries that you can bet on at certain times.
There are some big differences between betting on sports and on politics. But the main principles are practically the same. You will still need to cover major data and understand the elections processes. You can use this information to evaluate the odds of various outcomes.
You will get some tips from this article about building a sound strategy that you can use to make money by gambling on politics.
Learning more about the electoral system
We believe that this is the right place to go to first if you wish to bet on politics. Different countries have different electoral systems. Before making bets, you need to learn how these electoral systems operate. As an example of some of the counter-intuitiveness of all of this, we suggest looking into the last American presidential elections. Donald Trump won against Hilary Clinton even though she had more votes than him in the end.
If you come to learn more about the different aspects of the different elections around the world, then you will be much better able to calculate the odds of various outcomes.
You need to follow that the pools are saying – however, take everything with a grain of salt
If you take a look at the election pools for a particular election, then you will get a general outline of the odds of a certain candidate winning the election. You need to always keep the election pools in mind. However, don’t take everything that they say for granted. We could take the example with Donald Trump – according to the polls, Trump shouldn’t have even reached the latter stages of the election.
You need to know a few things in order to better understand the accuracy of the polls:
The poll’s target group: which people participated? Are these people a true representation of the popular opinion?
The margin of error: if the people are a true representation of the popular opinion, there’s still the margin of error that you need to consider. The number of people polled is a great indicator of this. The more people are polled, the lower the margin of error will be.
Checking out who did the poll: in a perfect world, you wouldn’t need to do this. However, the world of politics can be dirty and corrupted. There are many biased new agencies that use polls in order to create the popular opinion – not to represent it. You should always check the background of the media or agency that did any particular poll.
If you wish to get the best result, then you should analyze a number of different polls. This will mean that you will be much better able to get an idea of what really is going on.
Checking the trends
The trends for the elections are very important. You should take note of the fact that most of the elections campaigns start very early – in most cases, a full year before the elections. And this is more than enough time for dramatic changes in the trends. It doesn’t mean that if a candidate given 70% won’t make a blunder and lose all his or her support in a matter of a few days.
This is why it’s very important to take the trends into consideration. You need to think about what stands behind these trends in order to make proper assessments for the future. As an example, an unknown candidate may gain popularity – the trend may continue. However, there may be a scandal with the opponent – the trend of rising popularity may discontinue.
The best thing to do is to really go through the facts with logic and reason. This will help you make your final estimation.
Betting late on the favourites and early on the underdogs
Your mission is to get odds with positive expected value. The most important thing you could do is mind the timing. You should especially mind the endgame of the elections – really think through where you would place your bets in various endgame scenarios.
There is a general rule that states that you should back the underdogs early in the game. The odds for the underdogs are much better at the beginning phase. Take Donald Trump’s underdog odds at the beginning of the campaign – his odds were huge! However, the odds fell down dramatically near the end of the campaign when it was obvious that Trump was a serious contender.
And the exact opposite goes for the favorites. The odds for the favorites are low initially. But as time goes on and elections draw nearer, the odds have a tendency to rise.
Avoiding your own biases
Most people have biases in everyday life – and politics is no exception to this. Most of us lean to the right or the left in political sense. Perhaps some of you will have a family connection to a political party. You should put your biases aside when making political bets.
This is very much like betting on your favorite sports team. If you do this – then you may lack objectivity. So, you shouldn’t do it. You should never place your money based on the political views that you hold alone. There will be many other people in any given scenario that won’t share your views.
Closing your bets with a solid profit – a good idea
For an example, let’s say that you back a candidate with huge odds at the beginning of the campaign. Your personal opinion is that this person has high charisma that will win him popularity with time.
Everything goes as expected, and the candidate gains support. He becomes a real contender for winning the elections. His odds are such that can guarantee you profits if you lay him or bet on his opponent, or just cash out.
The best option usually is to just cash in. There is a popular saying about politics that says that one week is a lot of time in politics. You should never get greedy if you happen to find a winning edge. The fact of the matter is that politics can be highly volatile and unpredictable.
It’s your job to find the thin line between carelessness and taking measured risks.
Where can you bet on politics?
Most of the bigger bookies OUTSIDE US have options for betting on politics. Some of the bookies have turned this into their speciality:
- William Hill UK
- Paddy Power
Last Update: May 2019